There were few surprises on the local level in the state’s general election on Nov. 2, but three Senate races from other parts of the state are in dispute, several weeks later, as absentee ballots are still being counted.
In the Bronx, every incumbent representative running was re-elected for another term, with the exception of Sen. Pedro Espada, who was defeated in a highly publicized primary in September by political newcomer Gustavo Rivera. Rivera handily won the general election this month in the 33rd District.
Meanwhile, three races elsewhere — one on Long Island, one in Westchester and another in Buffalo — were too close to call, and are still being disputed. According to the New York Times, it looks like the Republican Party is poised to overtake the Democrats, who have held a slight majority in the State Senate since 2008.
The stakes are especially high this election, as 2010 Census figures are being calculated and the legislature will take on redistricting over the next year or two. Whatever party happens to be in power can lay the groundwork for a victory in the next several elections by ensuring districts work to their party’s favor.
“It’s huge,” said Christina Greer, a professor of politics at Fordham University. “It only happens every 10 years. The party in power really does get to, literally, draw the lines for districts that are the most advantageous to them.”
That means a Democratic representative could map their district based around where liberal voters are likely to reside — usually communities of color or areas near liberal educational institutions — and Republicans can do the equivalent to the advantage of their conservative base.
Whichever party wins, the majority is likely to be a slight one, which could set the stage for turbulence in Albany’s next session.
In the summer of 2009, when the Democrats had a 32-to-30 majority, two members of the party, Espada and Queens Democrat Hiram Monserrate, briefly switched over to the Republicans in a power coup that shut the Senate down for nearly a month.
“You’ve still got the potential of people defecting,” said Doug Muzzio, a professor at the School for Public Affairs at Baruch College. “I mean, you don’t have Monserrate anymore, or Espada anymore, but in a close body, anyone can turn.”