Like room temperature, economists like myself look at the economy to see if it is under- or over-heating, quarterly and annually.

Most economists use many tools for their analysis. Underneath are some from the Bureau of Economic Statistics (BES).

The GDP “growth rate” shows how much more the economy produced than in the previous quarter. The ideal rate is between 2 and 3%. In a healthy economy, unemployment and inflation are in balance.

In 2017 current GDP increased 4.7 percent.

It follows a 4.2 percent expansion in the previous period which was the highest since the third quarter of 2014.

Sixty to seventy percent (60-70 percent) of GDP is measured by Consumer Spending. Thus by the BES:

Personal Income and Outlays, June 2019 as per BES:
June 2019: 0.4 percent (personal income)

May 2019: 0.4 percent (personal income)

Personal income increased 0.4 percent in June. It increased the same in May and 0.2 percent in April.

Twenty percent (20 percent) of GDP is run by government spending.

According to the BES, government receipts and expenditures were as follows:

Current receipts 2nd quarter 2019: 1st quarter 2019 at $5.7 billion

Current expenditures 2nd quarter 2019: $7.2 billion 1st quarter 2019: $7 billion

International trade and investment take about 10 percent of our U.S. economy:

June 2019: –$55.2 billion

May 2019: –$55.3 billion

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in June 2019, according to the U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $55.3 billion in May (revised) to $55.2 billion in June, as imports decreased more than exports. The previously published May deficit was $55.5 billion. The goods deficit decreased $0.8 billion in June to $75.1 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.6 billion in June to $20.0 billion.

So, is this “flat growth” seeping into our goods and services prices:

GDP Price Index
2nd quarter 2019: 2.4 percent
1st quarter 2019: 1.1 percent

So, all of these are what’s called government stats. Now let’s do some simple math to further some analysis:

Last quarter vs. this upcoming quarter:
Consumer Spending is flat (0%)
65 percent of GDP

Government spending up 16 percent
20 percent of GDP

International Trade seems flat as well
10 percent of GDP

A recession? Really? Really?

I think many of these anti-Trump are putting crazy ideas into pundits heads all of a sudden, yelling recession. If you notice, the best number of all, signaling both expansion, and possibly over expansion is: the rate of personal income. It’s going up! That’s supposed to be good in a healthy economy, right? And it’s looks like it could be kicking in at around , annually 2.5%.

What recession?

While I am not a Trump fan, I am a fan of common sense. If you believe that we are going toward a recession, then you agree with Trump, that interest rates are too high?

What recession?

Professor Anthony Rivieccio, MBA PFA is the founder and CEO of The Financial Advisors Group, celebrating its 24th year as a fee-only financial planning firm specializing in solving one’s financial problems. Mr. Rivieccio, a recognized financial expert since 1986, has been featured by many national and local media including: Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, The New York Post, News 12 The Bronx, Bloomberg News Radio, BronxNet Television, the Norwood News, The West Side Manhattan Gazette, Labor Press Magazine, Financial Planning Magazine, WINS 1010 Radio, The Bronx News, thisisthebronx.com and The Bronx Chronicle. Mr. Rivieccio is also currently an Adjunct Professor of Business, Finance & Accounting for both, City University of New York & Monroe College, a Private University. Financial Focus Interactive is now an app and a place where one can: Read, Listen, Watch Talk & Learn about Financial Solutions with like minded people and a live financial advisor. Financial Focus Interactive app can be found on the Google Play Playstore or on or internet app at http://www.financialfocus.app . For financial assistance, Anthony can be reached at (347) 575-5045.