My job as a financial advisor today is most interesting. The questions are abundant. What should I do about the stock market? Why is my 401(k) down? How can I increase my bank balance?
If I could, we would throw away all the past logic, and we did! Today, “the new normal” begins. But what is this “new investing normal”? For one thing, it’s understanding that we live in a new economy, a stay-at-home work economy which we recognized, at one time, as self-employment or entrepreneurship. This will represent 15-20% of our economy.
Some people will prefer to work from home and some employers, looking to save money, will have some people work from home. Sadly, because this won’t encompass everyone who has lost a job, our economy will take some time to get back to the “old normal”.
So, just like our economy will take on a new shape, so too will the financial markets. If you haven’t already noticed, the stock market has been on the rise lately, but stock leaders today are not manufacturing-based, they’re virtual-based, and it’s all down to how our lives have changed in recent months.
Today, for example, work is still ongoing, and meetings are still taking place but not in the boardroom, in the Zoom room. This videoconferencing tool which has been around for years has, in just weeks, boomed in popularity, and other similar companies are doing well in this area as well.
Today, working from home with smartphones may not be optimum for many people who are trying to work efficiently, and so they will downgrade to a normal computer to maximize the efficiency of their new work tools. Yes, Microsoft and Apple will be part of our “new normal”.
Another example of how our life is changing is with entertainment. Under the “old normal” approach, you might have taken your friend or family “to the movies”, where you would have spent money on entertainment and food. Today, you just click on NETFLIX, check out what’s in the refrigerator and voilá! You have your “new virtual normal”, or maybe you just go to your Apple or Google play store to download your favorite games.
Alternatively, maybe you prefer to just hang out in front of a computer with friends as part of a virtual group? Just click on Facebook and you can interact with them in seconds. Still prefer your phone? I don’t blame you. But what makes all these apps work in the first place? A good operating system, that’s what, and in the smartphone world, it’s all covered by Google and Apple.
On the other hand, when it comes to keeping up with health care stocks, look what happened in the last two weeks to Gilead Sciences Inc, the drug company that produces Remdesivir, the experimental drug that recently received emergency FDA authorization to treat seriously ill COVID-19 patients in a clinical setting. Up! Up! Up!
Looking at our “old economy” since Jan 1, it’s been a disaster economically, and from observing the financial markets, it really has been no different: real estate is down 25 percent, energy is down 38 percent, large cap companies are down eight percent, and the traditional, manufacturing-based, S&P 500 Industrials Index is down 8.7 percent.
In the last two weeks, I ordered my staff to analyze what tools make up the “new normal”, and I saw a new world. Firstly, while the old manufacturing-based 500 Index was down, the virtual 500 NASDAQ was up 1.9 percent. Telecommunications were up 3 percent, healthcare was up 3.4 percent, and technology was up 4.9 percent.
On a side note, more surprising maybe were bond trends. While always a firm favorite in our client portfolios, average rates are still at a positive 4.7 percent since Jan 1.
So, what did we do? Really, we just followed the first three steps of financial planning: writing down goals, analyzing options and now, to execute those options, we created, “The Coronavirus Investment Fund”.
We created three sectors to trade in our world, what we call “technology stocks”, “new world – no technology”, and “the new regular” sectors. We believe, on the surface, that investment in these sectors can beat the “old market”, and with some occasional tweaking, can even outperform it.
But how much can you invest – whatever you want? Where can you invest? Maybe you can’t. In fact, this coronavirus fund is not officially a “real” fund. However, its hypothetical performance and results will be very real to us, as both will allow us to make futuristic decisions about our client portfolios.
Jason and Sheila, my assistants, are going to assist me with this process, and our results will be shared online, via a daily diary. As we track our “fake” mutual fund to see how it performs, we’ll be watching out for any “movement indicators” that will notify us to make possible readjustments to our “real” client mutual holdings in order for them to achieve real returns!
But can you create your own portfolio? Of course! But get professional help, and if you decide not to, go see a financial professional to get your long-term planning back in order. As you saw above, the traditional stock markets are taking a beating right now, through no fault of anyone but a virus. However, if you don’t re-adjust your portfolio now, it will be your fault.
And if you want to use the thought process behind our hypothetical “coronavirus mutual fund” as your guide, feel free to read our diary. It’s on our Facebook professional page. The link is listed further below.
What we can tell you now is this. Our office, as some may know, authored a mathematical article on Apr. 7 on the coronavirus and its progression up to the end point. We’ve been, mostly, very accurate on all of our findings to date from peak to trough, as well as identifying the point which we believe will be considered the “safe zone” in terms of getting back to normal. We believe that will be Jun. 15 at the earliest and, of course, we are looking at 90 days after that to slowly work out the way back to the “old normal”.
So, we are looking at applying this “new normal” approach until September, when hopefully we will be back to our traditional, promised, normal land once again. We believe the economy will slowly start to make its way out of this recession, but we anticipate seeing another four months of manufacturing destruction before that happens.
So, whether you create your own fund, or you go see a financial professional for a check-up, do something! Bank interest rates, if you have not already heard, may fall into negative territory. The fact that we’re so close to that now, is already very dangerous.
So, in keeping with one of my key ways of maintaining good financial health by increasing net worth, you might want to look at investing in line with our upcoming “new normal” approach, or arrange a financial check-up with your financial advisor.
By 2021, our economy will be roaring again as it once did but for the next eight months, we expect to see a “new change”.
You can find our “Coronavirus daily diary” here on our Facebook page: www.facebook.com/iwantmytaxmoney.
Professor Anthony Rivieccio, MBA PFA, is the founder and CEO of The Financial Advisors Group, celebrating its 24th year as a fee-only financial planning firm specializing in solving one’s financial problems. Mr. Rivieccio, a recognized financial expert since 1986, has been featured by many national and local media including: Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, The New York Post, News 12 The Bronx, Bloomberg News Radio, BronxNet Television, the Norwood News, The West Side Manhattan Gazette, Labor Press Magazine, Financial Planning Magazine, WINS 1010 Radio, The Co-Op City News, The Bronx News, thisisthebronX.info and The Bronx Chronicle. Mr. Rivieccio also pens a financial article called “Money Talk”. Anthony is also currently an Adjunct Professor of Business, Finance & Accounting for both, City University of New York & Monroe College, a Private University. You can reach Anthony at 347.575.5045.