If the Democratic candidates vying for the seat in the 15th Congressional District intend to secure votes in that district, they may want to take a look at figures that can help mold their strategies in the early days of this race.

The Norwood News broke down those figures contenders might want to take a look at that could influence their strategy in the early days of this race:

Formal Candidates: Four candidates have formally declared in the order in which they declared: community organizer Jonathan Ortiz, Councilman Ruben Diaz Sr. of the 18^th Council District, mentor Tomas Ramos, and Michael Blake, the Assemblyman who had to give up his seat to run for Congress. The number is expected to grow, given the overwhelming interest in the seat that’s stood occupied solely by Serrano for almost 30 years.

Demographics: The 15th Congressional District is two-thirds Hispanic, according to the U.S. Census figures. The bloc is largely split between Puerto Rican and Dominicans with Puerto Ricans making up 34.9 percent of the population, and Dominicans comprising 40.6 percent of the population, according to U.S. Census Data.

Ethnic identity politics will certainly play a role in this race, as more Dominicans seek greater representation in the same vein as residents from the 13th Congressional District done so by elected Congressman Adriano Espaillat, the first Dominican to be elected to the House of Representatives.

With a dominant Hispanic voting bloc, this can be a boon to candidates such as Diaz Sr., Ramos, and Ortiz, whose ethnic affiliation will put them over other non-Hispanic candidates such as Blake. Blake is the first black candidate to enter the race in a district that’s 28 percent black. But Blake may have an advantage, given how the district he’s represented for nearly five years has proven to come out and vote.

Where are the Votes: Using the New York City Board of Elections’ certified voting results for the June 2014 Primary (figures for the June 2016 Primary were unavailable), a relatively lackluster year for voting but an indicator on the area’s more loyal voters, five out of the top ten election districts with the highest voter turnout was in the 79th Assembly District, the same Assembly District Blake represented. Meantime, four of the top ten Election Districts that voted for Serrano were in the 79th Assembly District (Serrano won the 79th Assembly District).

Diaz Sr., who political observers note is a viable candidate given his roots in the South Bronx, had the 87th Assembly District, which overlaps with the 15th Congressional District, to thank for his Council win. Six of the top ten election districts that voted for Diaz Sr. in the September 2017 Primary fell in the 87th Assembly District, albeit by a mere 418 votes.

With the 79th Assembly District the most engaged within the 15th Congressional District, this offers greater advantage for Blake, whose name recognition in his home base during the New York City Public Advocate Special Election race helped him win the Bronx.

Blake also has an advantage in the fundraising front.

Fundraising: Blake stood among the top fundraisers during the New York City Public Advocate Special Election race, a skill that helped him secure his initial Assembly win even as he was the candidate the Bronx Democratic Party did not endorse back in 2014.

In a short amount of time, Blake had raised $384,569 to bankroll his campaign, more than the winner of the special election, Jumaane Williams, who raised $293,788. Blake raised more than half of what Diaz Sr. raised for his Council run, $151,891. While Diaz Sr. used the funds for traditional advertising and campaign literature, Blake did the same though he threw in digital advertising as one of his big-ticket items. The strategy didn’t quite work for Blake, who came in fourth in the race.

Days: As of press time, there are roughly 400 days until the June 2020 Primary, which means the first step for any candidate is to fundraise. Candidates will have to begin filing their campaign disclosure reports must be filed by July 15, offering an initial glimpse into the kind of race political observers will be in for over the next year.

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Welcome to the Norwood News, a bi-weekly community newspaper that primarily serves the northwest Bronx communities of Norwood, Bedford Park, Fordham and University Heights. Through our Breaking Bronx blog, we focus on news and information for those neighborhoods, but aim to cover as much Bronx-related news as possible. Founded in 1988 by Mosholu Preservation Corporation, a not-for-profit affiliate of Montefiore Medical Center, the Norwood News began as a monthly and grew to a bi-weekly in 1994. In September 2003 the paper expanded to cover University Heights and now covers all the neighborhoods of Community District 7. The Norwood News exists to foster communication among citizens and organizations and to be a tool for neighborhood development efforts. The Norwood News runs the Bronx Youth Journalism Heard, a journalism training program for Bronx high school students. As you navigate this website, please let us know if you discover any glitches or if you have any suggestions. We’d love to hear from you. You can send e-mails to norwoodnews@norwoodnews.org or call us anytime (718) 324-4998.