In his campaign for re-election in the 13th Congressional District, which now includes the northwest Bronx and has its primary on Tuesday, June 26, Charlie Rangel is not lacking for endorsements. Today, he added a bunch of out of town political allies that nobody in the district has ever of.
If this June 26 primary were won based on number of endorsements, Rangel would win in a landslide, although State Senator Adriano Espaillat has also racked up his share of public supporters. (Pulitzer-prize winner Junot Diaz and a whole slew of upper Manhattan artists joined Team Espaillat this past week. And Clyde Williams picked up endorsements from the NY Times and Daily News.)
But the question remains: Does it matter? Will X number of endorsements = victory?
The Times explored this question earlier in the race, writing that: “Endorsements, analysts say, do not make much difference to voters.”
Bronx Assemblyman Jeff Dinowitz, who has not picked a side in the race (although his Ben Franklin club is backing Espaillat), responded indirectly to that statement, saying, “Contrary to what the news media might have you believe, I think endorsements do matter.” But, he added, those endorsements become more valuable if those supporters actually put in the tough work of campaigning — knocking on doors, showing up at subway stations, making phone calls.
In the Times article, one analyst, John Guttierrez, a Latino Studies professor at John Jay, said Rangel is using endorsements “in lieu” of campaigning: “He’s not going to be at train stations, he’s not going to be visiting senior centers, he’s not going to be doing all of the retail politics that Adriano is, frankly, very, very good at.”
Which brings us back to the Bronx. The two most prominent Bronx supporters of Rangel, Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. and Congressman Jose Serrano, both made huge shows of their endorsements of the 81-year-old icon. Diaz at Borough hall and Serrano on the steps of City Hall. Lots of hoopla and balloons, the whole nine yards.
On the other hand, Espaillat has State Senator Gustavo Rivera, who is a career campaign operative, and proved his mettle (and ability to get the vote) in unseating Pedro Espada in 2010. He said he is spending much of free time, “as much as my schedule allows,” banging on doors and walking his district, which makes up all of the Bronx portion of the 13th District, with Espaillat.
“What helps Espaillat slightly, is that Gustavo is helping him there,” said Lucia Gomez, who works for La Fuente, a nonprofit group that advocates for fair redistricting and voter turnout. “That can be a factor.”
Also in play: Labor endorsements. Rangel has the vast majority of them. Dinowitz said that with an unusually early primary date, June 26, labor unions could play a role in getting their members out to the polls, which will be a chore throughout the district.
“Low turnout tends to favor the incumbent,” Dinowitz said, “especially because of the labor support.”
In four days, we’ll know for sure.